From a technical perspective USB has never been known for its blazing performance, but it is good enough and tolerable for most applications. From a technical perspective 1394/Firewire is the clear winner. It's been interesting to watch USB, with ever new version trying to emulate and be more like Firewire. Even today take a USB 2.0 thumb drive (480 Mbps Claimed) and transfer a large file to it from the computer. Now take a 1394a/ Firewire thumb drive (Yes they do exist) and transfer that same file. Even though 1394a is "only" rated for 400 Mbps and USB 2.0 for 480 Mbps the Firewire drive transfers the file over 4 times faster! I made the same observation USB was so lame from a technical perspective it seemed destined to failure. Never underestimate the power of marketing.
After 40 years of watching one disappointment after another I agree with the previous respondent, and as a result I understand how your prediction ended up being incorrect.
Technical merit has little to do with success. If one looked backed at the crud that got the market share you could be forgiven in thinking that technical merit was a direct indicator of impending market failure.
The innovators spent money on R&D and innovation while the market leaders spent money on lawyers and spin doctors. The world as a whole lost out but fortunately most users are so technically inept to have noticed the difference.
